Trump is losing: Response to a Politico article

Over the past weekend I read a Politico article which provided a number of reasons why President Trump will win re-election in 2020. I disagree with the conclusion and provide my arguments here as to why the President will lose.

I do not think that Trump will face a primary opponent leading up to 2020. The base is fully "koolaidified" and will severely punish anyone who dares to challenge him (plus he would assign them a moniker and, thus, consign them to the trash heap of Republican history; little Marco anyone?). Someone like Kasich may entertain a thought but will look at the polls at that time and figure out that 2024 might be a better option (That is if Trump does not decide to go the route of the Chinese President if he wins in 2020).

So it will be up to the Democrats to ensure that the world is not subjected to four more years of DT. The Democrats have to meld a (wo)man and message (more on this later) with the current anti-Trump fervor in order to unseat him.

The anti-trump vectors are strong and will drive his opponents to the polls in 2020:

• Minorities who see Trump as promoting a nationalist agenda will turn out in droves (as they have been doing in recent special elections)
• Women, who see DT as being opposed to their health issues as well as being weak on #MeToo issues, will be a force to be reckoned with. Black women have already stated their position and a host of recent polls show white females slowly deserting the ship.
• Immigrants perceive DT as a threat to family reunification (the same mechanism utilized to get Melania's parents permanent residence in the US) and many of them do not take kindly to him calling their former homes shitholes (whether that be the case or not).
• DACA supporters see the President as the one who has upset the apple cart and him and the GOP as being the major stumbling block in addressing the issue.
• Puerto Ricans living in Florida and New York can vote immediately and will make the President pay for his woefully inadequate response to Hurricane Maria and his disrespect for their local politicians. Florida will most likely go blue in 2020.
• The youth. Between now and 2020, a large number of the nation's youth will attain voting age. And a large number of these kids will have been turned-off by the actions of the GOP, the President, and the NRA in not responding to their calls for gun control. They will vote Democratic.
• Good-governance folks who are turned off by the nepotism and corruption adsociated with this administration
• Conservative orphans -- the conservative movement has bifurcated into two camps: the ones who have come around to Trumpism and the permanent never-Trumpers (you see a number of them on mainstream media outlets today). These orphans represent a small but influential block available to add their numbers in the vote against re-election.

So I think that the environment the President has created will help to drive turnout in opposing forces (it will drive turnout among his supporters also). But Democrats should not only run an anti-Trump campaign. It does not give an undecided person a reason to vote for you. Also, if you win, you have no ruling mandate.

The Democrats have been accused of not having a message and having boring potential candidates. The lack of excitement associated with Hillary was a key contributor to the President winning the Electoral College.

As regards a message, I do not think that the Democrats have to look too far. What has people in angst about this Presidency is the decimation of our ideals and the evisceration of our norms. We see threats to our democracy in some of his actions. We need to restore and revitalize the fabric of this country in such a way, where possible, that some wannabe autocrat cannot wreak similar havoc in the future. We need to :

• Restore good-government practices and, where possible, enshrine them in law
• Shore up our institutions and return the independence of institutions such as the Department of Justice and FBI
• Reaffirm the role of the Press in our constitutional democracy
• Restore consumer protections
• Reduce the influence of corporations in the electoral process
• Restore the positioning of science in our society
• Restore balance in the tax system such that we defuse the tax bomb that has been bequeathed to our grandchildren
• Harden the laws against nepotism
• Revitalize our infrastructure
• Restore our leadership and alliances on the international front.

Even with a mesage, the Dems face a daunting task as it relates to a candidate. There is no electrifying person in the current stable of prospects. And, as the Politico article pointed out, there is the prospect of brutal primary battles which could cause a hemorrhaging of money and enthusiasm. As much as I hate to say it, the Dems may have to step outside of the political arena to get what is needed. Michelle Obama has the charisma but I think that they are done. I have spoken out against Oprah but if she surrounds herself with a strong policy shop, who knows. The people that I think the focus should be upon are as follows:

• Mayor of New Orleans Mitch Landrieu -- Good problem solver and very acceptable to minority voters
• Kamala Harris -- hits on a number of buttons but suffers from a lack of name recognition
• Joseph P. Kennedy III -- has charisma and generic name recognition. Has a long road ahead though and needs to change his brand of lip gloss.
• Oprah - name recognition but a promoter of the kook squad
• George Clooney -- his heart is in the right place.